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The Business Forum Journal


Forward March into 2015 for our Technology Driven Society

By Dr. Paul H. Rosenthal


Technology -based industries are a leading force in the development of the U.S. economy. They account for the largest share of jobs, sales, and labor income of any major cluster of industries in the U.S. economic base particularly in the Blue States.  Therefore my annual forecast addresses the forecasted progress of high technology over the next several years.

The following chart extracted from the �The Economic Impact of Technology-Based

Industries in Washington State (2013)� displays an index of economic impact of technology-based industries on the state�s economy.

The use of the Internet for business-to-consumer and business-to-business sales and purchases is burgeoning, and the application of information technologies in a wide array of industries has now been recognized as fueling the most of the increase in the productivity of American industry. 

GDP-Payroll Ratios for Technology and Non-technology Based States

There is a significant difference is the growth and decline rates of GDP and Payroll for technology and non-technology industries.  For example, during the recent contraction a wholesaler�s CIO complained that his IT costs were increasing will his sales were plummeting.  I explained that IT costs were based on the number of transactions while sales were based on the average dollar value of the transactions.  During the contraction customers ordered more frequently but for much smaller amounts to reduce inventory costs.

For the heavily technology oriented states (mostly Blue States), GDP has been rising more rapidly than employment, while in the non-technology oriented states GDP and employment has risen at comparable rates.  However the growth rates of technology-oriented industries is double to triple the growth rate of older industries.

  • Technology-oriented states are happy with GDP growth but very upset with the slow growth of employment.

  • Non-technology states are unhappy with the slow growth of both GDP and employment.

Therefore, everyone is unhappy and we have seen a change in political power structures.

Forecast for 2015

New technologies appear to be emerging at a steady and reasonable rate.  No major technology disruptions are anticipated over the short term (one to two years). 

This is not true over the next decade as biotechnology is just starting to produce marketable tools and products and new materials are expected to change the way we build things.

In summary, more of the same Next Year!

Paul H. Rosenthal, PhD is a Fellow of The Business Forum Institute and Professor of Information Systems at California State University, Los Angeles.  Dr. Paul Rosenthal has for many years taught a wide variety of courses encompassing information systems technology, business management, political economy, and systems audit and assessment   He is recognized as one of the leading experts is Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning. Paul received a Bachelors' Degree in Education and a Masters degree in Applied Mathematics from Temple University, an MBA from UCLA, and a DBA from USC.  Prior to joining CalstateLA, he spent more than thirty five years in industry as a professional, both as a manager and as a consultant.  His recent research interests involve business continuity management, IS/IT education assessment, IS/IT Infrastructure Planning and advanced Technology Systems Assessment.

Contact the Author:  ~  Click Here

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