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The Business Forum
Forward March into 2015 for our Technology Driven Society
Dr. Paul H. Rosenthal
Technology -based industries are a
leading force in the development of the U.S. economy. They account for the
largest share of jobs, sales, and labor income of any major cluster of
industries in the U.S. economic base particularly in the Blue States.
Therefore my annual forecast addresses the forecasted progress of high
technology over the next several years.
The following chart extracted from the
Economic Impact of Technology-Based
Industries in Washington State (2013)�
displays an index of economic impact of technology-based industries on the
The use of the Internet for
business-to-consumer and business-to-business sales and purchases is
burgeoning, and the application of information technologies in a wide
array of industries has now been recognized as fueling the most of the
increase in the
productivity of American
Ratios for Technology and Non-technology Based States
There is a significant difference is
the growth and decline rates of GDP and Payroll for technology and
non-technology industries. For example, during the recent contraction a
wholesaler�s CIO complained that his IT costs were increasing will his sales
were plummeting. I explained that IT costs were based on the number of
transactions while sales were based on the average dollar value of the
transactions. During the contraction customers ordered more frequently but
for much smaller amounts to reduce inventory costs.
For the heavily technology oriented
states (mostly Blue States), GDP has been rising more rapidly than
employment, while in the non-technology oriented states GDP and employment
has risen at comparable rates. However the growth rates of
technology-oriented industries is double to triple the growth rate of older
Therefore, everyone is unhappy and
we have seen a change in political power structures.
Forecast for 2015
New technologies appear to be
emerging at a steady and reasonable rate. No major technology disruptions
are anticipated over the short term (one to two years).
This is not true over the next
decade as biotechnology is just starting to produce marketable tools and
products and new materials are expected to change the way we build things.
summary, more of the same Next Year!
H. Rosenthal, PhD is a Fellow of The Business Forum Institute
and Professor of Information Systems at California State University, Los
Angeles. Dr. Paul Rosenthal has for many years taught a wide variety of courses encompassing information systems
technology, business management, political economy, and systems audit and
assessment He is recognized as one of the leading
experts is Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning.
Paul received a Bachelors' Degree in Education and a Masters
degree in Applied Mathematics
from Temple University, an MBA from UCLA, and a DBA from USC. Prior
to joining CalstateLA, he spent more than thirty five years in industry as a
professional, both as a manager and as a consultant. His recent research
interests involve business continuity management, IS/IT education
assessment, IS/IT Infrastructure Planning and advanced Technology Systems
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