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Technology -based industries are a leading force in the development of the U.S. economy. They account for the largest share of jobs, sales, and labor income of any major cluster of industries in the U.S. economic base particularly in the Blue States. Therefore my annual forecast addresses the forecasted progress of high technology over the next several years. The following chart extracted from the “The Economic Impact of Technology-Based Industries in Washington State (2013)” displays an index of economic impact of technology-based industries on the state’s economy. The use of the Internet for business-to-consumer and business-to-business sales and purchases is burgeoning, and the application of information technologies in a wide array of industries has now been recognized as fueling the most of the increase in the productivity of American industry. GDP-Payroll Ratios for Technology and Non-technology Based States There is a significant difference is the growth and decline rates of GDP and Payroll for technology and non-technology industries. For example, during the recent contraction a wholesaler’s CIO complained that his IT costs were increasing will his sales were plummeting. I explained that IT costs were based on the number of transactions while sales were based on the average dollar value of the transactions. During the contraction customers ordered more frequently but for much smaller amounts to reduce inventory costs. For the heavily technology oriented states (mostly Blue States), GDP has been rising more rapidly than employment, while in the non-technology oriented states GDP and employment has risen at comparable rates. However the growth rates of technology-oriented industries is double to triple the growth rate of older industries.
Therefore, everyone is unhappy and we have seen a change in political power structures. Forecast for 2015 New technologies appear to be emerging at a steady and reasonable rate. No major technology disruptions are anticipated over the short term (one to two years). This is not true over the next decade as biotechnology is just starting to produce marketable tools and products and new materials are expected to change the way we build things. In summary, more of the same Next Year!
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