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Thomas Mann, 1896
The Business Forum
My View of 2015
years we may finally be seeing substantial improvement in the economy. The
1st quarter of 2015 will confirm the strength of recent trends. Good news,
however there are many issues that could make 2015 a very interesting and
potentially volatile year.
thoughts that may greatly affect 2015 outcomes.
On a macro
basis the economy is advancing. Looking at the details the recovery is not
wide spread focused on certain industries chief among then oil, banking and
some manufacturing. Many industries have not seen growth matching past
growth is also experiencing similar unevenness. Government puts a veneer on
progress using current unemployment calculations. It is important to
understand the composition. Employment among minorities, lower income and
younger citizens has not returned to pre-2008 levels. Yes job growth is
increasing, but a substantial portion of new jobs created have been in low
wage industries as hospitality and fast food.
now control congress. They have no excuses for not doing their part in
reducing gridlock. They have 2015 and into early 2016 before the next
presidential election season starts - not much time to make their case for
leadership. I see a divided party without a strong national leader. Watching
them determine priorities and trying to achieve party consensus and reach
across the aisle will be interesting.
domestic consideration is the changing Federal Reserve policies. They are
reducing QE and beginning to talk about letting interest rates return to
more normal levels. How this will play out in the economy is difficult to
estimate. Their definitely will be winners and losers.
there are two key developments that have the potential of significantly
shaping world economies. The oil boom and resulting supply glut is not short
term but a “new normal.” Second Japan has initiated a currency war. Both of
these trends could have major worldwide economic effect and will continue
through 2015 and longer.
I have outlined will make for a fascinating 2015 economically and
politically both domestically and internationally. The economic situation is
fragile. There appears to be more than the usual amount of uncertainty. That
is the basis of my 2015 prediction – uncertainty.
On a personal
note it is prudent to realize the world is in an uncertain state. In recent
years financial advisors have recommended international investments as a
means of maintaining returns. Now there is great potential for major
corrections in economies and industries. 2015 is a year to be especially
vigilant regarding your investment portfolio.
On a personal note:
If this article has made you think about building more effective results, I
would be happy to meet with you to discuss the state of your business.
Before we start I will ask you to complete three assessments that evaluate
your company strategically, in leadership and personal productivity. This is
your commitment to a focused high quality interchange.
There is no obligation. We will meet as long as
necessary to have an in depth review. My objective is to first build a
relationship. If we agree to continue working together, great, if not then
my hope is that our discussion will still lead you to constructive change.
949-689-4085 Pacific Time
Thomas R. Northup
is a Fellow of The Business Forum Institute and a coach,
speaker and author with over 30 years running companies the
last 3 as CEO. He now assists managers and executives
produce the stretch results they are having trouble
reaching. Tom’s work can be explored in his leadership blog,
his book, The Five Hidden Mistakes CEOs Make, and his coming
book, Leadership Is Not a Soft Skill. Using his unique
experience, Tom gives expert insight and simple to use
methods you can use to build a focused, outstanding
organization to meet your vision, create sustainable growth
and to develop “unfair competitive advantage.” Tom graduated
with a BS in Mathematics from Bucknell University and has an
MBA from Syracuse University.
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